{ "schema": "dst-phases/1.0", "title": "治水历", "titleEn": "DST Phases (a positioning calendar)", "version": "1.0", "versionLabel": "v1.0", "date": "2026-10-04", "license": "CC BY 4.0", "source": "https://zhishuixue.com/glossary.html", "definitionAnchor": "治水学概念层级表（术语母表）v1.0", "maintainer": { "name": "宁凯峰", "orcid": "https://orcid.org/0009-0001-4414-6058" }, "idea": "像二十四节气：给有限、固定、有序的刻度与物候，只说宜忌类别，不给具体答案；案例天天变，历不变。", "usage": "三步：辨势 → 定性 → 定策（博弈类另加一镜：观隙）", "principle": "只给坐标，不给答案；案例天天变，历不变——案例按接口自动挂载，刻度本身不随案例增减。", "taboos": [ "不判对错——只呈结构，不评成败得失，判断权留给使用者", "不代作答——诊断不是答案，只给坐标", "不越尺——个人／组织／国家／文明不共用同一把尺" ], "counts": { "cells": 18, "mountedCases": 15, "totalCases": 15 }, "unmounted": [], "howToUse": [ "立界：先问『在哪个系统里、我在不在界内』，并请承压位置的主体确认。", "沿三刀走：辨势（三股力各在不在动）→ 定性（脱节走到哪一段）→ 定策（加哪股力）。", "输出坐标、不给答案：只说落在哪一格、宜什么、忌什么；博弈类另加一镜『观隙』。" ], "lines": [ { "id": "seq", "name": "序 · 立界", "note": "第一件事，不可跳", "cells": [ { "id": "P0", "line": "seq", "folk": "划界", "term": "结构判断·系统边界", "phenomena": "还说不清『这事发生在谁的系统里』", "ask": "这件事在哪个系统里？边界画在哪？我在界内还是界外？", "good": "先写一句话边界声明；由处于承压位置的主体确认", "avoid": "跳过立界直接下判断——边界定，则承载物定、采集方向定、一切定", "mountedCases": [ { "id": "B-0009", "title": "隔岸观火", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/B-0009.html" } ], "termAnchor": "structural-judgment", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "结构判断" } ] }, { "id": "judge", "name": "第一刀 · 辨势", "note": "看三股力，各在不在动", "cells": [ { "id": "P1", "line": "judge", "folk": "起风", "term": "突破性动能（→ 信号）", "phenomena": "新变量先动——新技术／新需求／新玩家／新政策出现，某个指标最先变化", "ask": "什么最先动了？谁先注意到的？", "good": "找出最先动的那股力量，追它的源头", "avoid": "把一次性波动当『风』；此时不要急着下结论", "mountedCases": [ { "id": "B-0001", "title": "瞒天过海", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/B-0001.html" } ], "termAnchor": "breakthrough-force", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "突破性动能" }, { "id": "P2", "line": "judge", "folk": "老堤", "term": "稳定性动能（→ 情境第三层）", "phenomena": "制度、流程、结构照旧；『一直都是这么办的』", "ask": "当时受什么约束？什么一直没变？", "good": "把没变的东西列清楚（资源／规则／人员／时间）", "avoid": "低估没变的力量——老堤往往决定成败", "mountedCases": [], "termAnchor": "stability-force", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "稳定性动能" }, { "id": "P3", "line": "judge", "folk": "长河", "term": "方向性动能（→ 预期）", "phenomena": "长期目标、深层共识、集体叙事", "ask": "当时想达到什么？这个方向是谁定的？", "good": "辨认方向由谁锚定；判断它是否仍被多数认同", "avoid": "把大方向当口号——要看它是否在影响具体选择", "mountedCases": [], "termAnchor": "directional-force", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "方向性动能" }, { "id": "P4", "line": "judge", "folk": "水位差", "term": "分层异步", "phenomena": "新水已来、老堤未动——技术快了、制度没跟；上面定了、下面还按老的做", "ask": "这个时间差是真实存在的，还是执行不力？", "good": "确认时间差确实存在，量出它有多大", "avoid": "把正常的时差当失配；不要急于填平——时差恒大于零、不可消除", "mountedCases": [ { "id": "B-0004", "title": "以逸待劳", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/B-0004.html" } ], "termAnchor": "layered-asynchrony", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "分层异步" } ] }, { "id": "locate", "name": "第二刀 · 定性", "note": "脱节走到哪一段——顺着走，不可跳格", "cells": [ { "id": "P5", "line": "locate", "folk": "起汛", "term": "响应缺口（自系统）", "phenomena": "开始来不及——同一个问题反复冒头，补救总慢一拍", "ask": "规则层响应周期是否已超过承受窗口？", "good": "量出缺口有多大（个人数周–数月／组织数季度–数年／国家数年–十年／文明数十年–百年，仅经验参照）", "avoid": "把忙不过来当缺口", "mountedCases": [], "termAnchor": "response-gap", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "响应缺口" }, { "id": "P6", "line": "locate", "folk": "见损", "term": "功能损害", "phenomena": "服务受阻／执行停滞／协调失效——出现『烂』的具体表现", "ask": "损害是否可归因于动力-规则适配本身？", "good": "做归因检验：改变适配后若损害仍在，则不可归因于失配", "avoid": "把外部冲击、个别失误算到失配头上", "mountedCases": [], "termAnchor": "functional-impairment", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "功能损害" }, { "id": "P7", "line": "locate", "folk": "偏航", "term": "失配三类型（2+1 结构）", "phenomena": "扩张型＝摊子铺太快、边界失守；保守型＝守着老规矩、错过窗口；空转型＝口号满天飞、落不了地", "ask": "是突破性动能主导（扩张）、稳定性动能主导（保守），还是方向脱离实践（空转）？", "good": "先定类型，再选操作", "avoid": "混判——三型的解法不同", "mountedCases": [], "termAnchor": "three-mismatch-types", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "失配三类型（2+1 结构）" }, { "id": "P8", "line": "locate", "folk": "板结", "term": "锁定模式", "phenomena": "动不了——改革推不动、换人也一样；外部扰动暂时打破后系统仍返回原状态", "ask": "扰动打破之后，系统会不会弹回原状？", "good": "做扰动检验，判断是否已锁定", "avoid": "把暂时困难当锁定", "mountedCases": [], "termAnchor": "lock-in", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "锁定模式" }, { "id": "P9", "line": "locate", "folk": "封冻", "term": "语法锁定", "phenomena": "写进制度、成了结构——『这不是某个人，这是规矩』", "ask": "它断裂了哪条前提？（动力-规则共生／洪水永恒／治水实践先在）", "good": "追断裂前提：疏浚锁定／方舟锁定／祭祀锁定", "avoid": "只换人不换结构", "mountedCases": [], "termAnchor": "syntax-lock-in", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "语法锁定" } ] }, { "id": "act", "name": "第三刀 · 定策", "note": "往哪加力", "cells": [ { "id": "P10", "line": "act", "folk": "疏", "term": "疏浚（改源头）", "phenomena": "问题源头明确、可改造", "ask": "压力的生成源在哪？能不能改它？", "good": "开信息／改路径／换出力者／排次序", "avoid": "源头不可及、或改造代价过高时硬疏", "mountedCases": [ { "id": "A-0002", "title": "鲸鱼大楼酬金制账目困局", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/A-0002.html" }, { "id": "A-0003", "title": "长白229街坊充电桩困局", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/A-0003.html" }, { "id": "A-0004", "title": "九里片区“九合一”拆墙并院困局", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/A-0004.html" }, { "id": "B-0002", "title": "围魏救赵", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/B-0002.html" }, { "id": "B-0003", "title": "借刀杀人", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/B-0003.html" }, { "id": "C-0002", "title": "DeepSeek 开源决策", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/C-0002.html" } ], "termAnchor": "dredging", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "疏浚" }, { "id": "P11", "line": "act", "folk": "筑", "term": "方舟（守底线）", "phenomena": "核心功能面临不可逆破坏", "ask": "什么不能失去？底线画在哪？", "good": "先守住资金、信息、决策权等核心功能", "avoid": "守过头——防御过度扩张会变成方舟锁定", "mountedCases": [ { "id": "A-0001", "title": "业委会秘书“八个严禁”制度边界", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/A-0001.html" } ], "termAnchor": "arking", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "方舟" }, { "id": "P12", "line": "act", "folk": "聚", "term": "祭祀（凝共识）", "phenomena": "分歧不在『改不改』，而在『改后利益怎么分』", "ask": "谁是关键少数？他的顾虑是什么？", "good": "先做通少数关键人，把想象的利益受损变成可当面交换的具体利益", "avoid": "把凝聚共识做成统一思想", "mountedCases": [ { "id": "C-0001", "title": "OpenAI 解雇风波", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/C-0001.html" } ], "termAnchor": "sacrificing", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "祭祀" }, { "id": "P13", "line": "act", "folk": "开河", "term": "破局（四步）", "phenomena": "已锁定，但核心底线尚未被击穿", "ask": "属于哪种锁定？（疏浚／方舟／祭祀锁定）", "good": "按锁定类型选一套四步——方舟锁定：祭祀先行→疏浚补能→方舟重构→协同固化；祭祀锁定：疏浚破局→叙事重构→制度固化→协同固化；疏浚锁定：方舟兜底→祭祀校准→精准疏浚→协同固化", "avoid": "核心存续底线已被击穿时，破局路径失效——不承诺『死而复生』", "mountedCases": [], "termAnchor": "unlocking", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "破局" } ] }, { "id": "gap", "name": "一镜 · 观隙", "note": "博弈类专用：反看对方——响应失效四态", "cells": [ { "id": "P14", "line": "gap", "folk": "来不及", "term": "响应缺口（对方）· 时间维", "phenomena": "对方的规则层来不及响应，暴露可乘之窗", "ask": "对方是否正处于响应崩溃、无暇他顾的窗口？", "good": "趁其响应崩溃就势出手，得手即收", "avoid": "把假火当真火；火势会反噬自身时不要靠近", "mountedCases": [ { "id": "B-0005", "title": "趁火打劫", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/B-0005.html" } ], "termAnchor": "response-gap", "termDefined": true, "termLinked": "响应缺口" }, { "id": "P15", "line": "gap", "folk": "方向错", "term": "响应错位 · 空间维", "phenomena": "对方有明确防守重点，真假目标存在空间差", "ask": "能否用假信号把对方的部署引到错误方向？", "good": "制造声势逼真的假动作（声东），再趁真目标空虚转攻（击西）", "avoid": "与『被钉住』混用——错位是引开，锁定是钉住", "mountedCases": [ { "id": "B-0006", "title": "声东击西", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/B-0006.html" } ], "termAnchor": "", "termDefined": false, "termLinked": "" }, { "id": "P16", "line": "gap", "folk": "麻木", "term": "响应钝化 · 敏感度维", "phenomena": "对方有可被反复假信号磨钝的固定响应", "ask": "能否用反复的假信号降低对方的警觉？", "good": "先用假信号骗得真利，再磨钝警觉，最后真动作乘虚突袭", "avoid": "磨钝不等于失效——需确认对方响应确实已迟钝", "mountedCases": [ { "id": "B-0007", "title": "无中生有", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/B-0007.html" } ], "termAnchor": "", "termDefined": false, "termLinked": "" }, { "id": "P17", "line": "gap", "folk": "被钉住", "term": "响应锁定 · 锁定维", "phenomena": "对方有明确的、可被锁定的关注点", "ask": "能否用明线把对方的注意力钉死在假方向？", "good": "用明修栈道把对方注意力锁死，再从暗路突袭", "avoid": "与『方向错』混用——锁定是让对方向不动，不是引它动", "mountedCases": [ { "id": "B-0008", "title": "暗渡陈仓", "url": "https://zhishuixue.com/cases/B-0008.html" } ], "termAnchor": "", "termDefined": false, "termLinked": "" } ] } ] }